Goldman Sachs makes the call on the World Cup

The Goldman Sachs World Cup and Economics 2006 survey suggests there is a limit to how much overlap there is between the beautiful game and the murky world of finance.

Goldman Sachs says that when it comes to footballing success, population size matters. Luxembourg, Switzerland and Norway have three of the highest living standards in the world but feature nowhere in the World Cup. By contrast, the four most populous countries in the European Union -- Britain, Germany, France and Italy -- are the only European nations to have lifted the trophy.

“This suggests that there may be a common denominator between size and football success,’’ said Jim O’Neill, the company’s chief economist. “Perhaps it is simply the size of population that matters for football success in Europe. Other economic measures matter less.’’

Using a probability model, combining official rankings and book-makers’ odds and the toughness of each team’s World Cup schedule, Goldman says Brazil has a one-in-eight chance of lifting the trophy. England, using the same yardstick, are second. Should England win for the first time since 1966, there would be a feelgood factor that would help boost an economy already on course for robust growth this year and next, according to the investment bank.